Anthony Mall

Learning economic indicators the simple way

You may think that The Secret of Economic Indicators is another ideal-put-you-to-sleep book. Honestly, that was my reaction when I received this 376-page book on such mundane economic indicators as gross domestic product, consumer price index, employment situation and yield curve, to name a few. But author Bernard Baumohl seems to have predicted such a reaction as he penned in the book’s preface: “The subject of economic indicators can be lethally boring.” So he had to “make the whole subject approachable and interesting”. Guess what? Three pages into the preface, I began to sense that I had reacted wrongly. And two chapters into the book, I knew I was dead wrong. This book is different. Don’t have an economics degree, an MBA, or a CPA? Don’t worry. You don’t need any of it. Baumohl explains each seemingly complicated indicator in an easy-to-understand, non-academic language. In fact, the book could be titled Economic Indicators for Dummies or Economic Indicators 101. But it provides investors a wealth of information that can be applied to predict the future trends of and impact on bond, stock and currency markets. Why such a book? While largely contented in the past to rely on their investment advisors’ insights, individual investors today increasingly prefer to take more control to manage their own investments and personal wealth. Unlike other books on the same subject, Baumohl’s book is organised in an encyclopaedic manner. I find this useful and refreshing. Chapter 1, which begins more like a suspense thriller than a typical economics text, describes the intense secrecy and anticipation that surrounds the release of economic information. Chapter 2 explains the common economic jargons such as annual rates, business cycle, consensus surveys, nominal dollars, real dollars, moving average and seasonal adjustments. Nothing new to the old hands, but useful to the new hands or the uninitiated. It also nicely sets the stage for the next chapter. Chapter 3 is where the book’s core idea is found. Simplicity characterises its layout. In it are 47 indicators, each covered by four sections: Section I: Market sensitivity (low, medium, high), what it is, website of news release, release time, frequency of release, source of information, and frequency of revisions. Section II: Why is it important Section III: How is it calculated Section IV: Market impact (on bonds, stocks and currencies) It’s a thick chapter. I particularly like the chapter, though, firstly for its simplicity and clarity in explanation. Secondly, after understanding a particular indicator, one can appreciate its impact on the economy and this helps in making investment decisions. And thirdly, one can choose to skip through to focus on certain indicators of interest at any point in time. Chapter 4 covers the most significant international economic indicators, namely German, Japanese, French, Eurozone, Global, OECD, Chinese and Brazilian. Chapter 5 and 6 list out what Baumohl thinks are the best websites for US and international economic indicators. The book is useful to investors or to those in professions which deal with or market to investors. If the question, “What’s the meaning of this economic indicator?” pops into my head in the future, you know which “economic indicator bible” I will consult. The book, however, left me with two questions. First, with their US orientation and emphasis, how useful are these indicators in the Malaysian context, especially when they and their related data are either non-existent, so scattered or a challenge to find in Malaysia? Lastly, despite the wealth of knowledge in unlocking the secrets of economic indicators, why is the future still unpredictable? Only God can unlock the secrets of how the future will turn out. Tan Sri Francis Yeoh summed up the situation best when he said, “Anyone who claims to be able to foresee and manage future events must have their heads examined.”